What I learned from 10 years in VR – the harsh truth

Ten years ago, VR promised to change everything. Today, it has—just not in the ways we expected.

Hey everyone, it’s Cosmo. I've just returned from AWE, the world's premier XR conference, and the time dilation is hitting me hard. Seeing photos of Palmer Luckey and I - one from a decade ago and one from last week - it's like looking at a before-and-after shot of the entire VR industry.

A full decade of working in virtual reality. Everything has changed, and yet, in some ways, the dream of VR feels just as far away as it did back then. It's a strange feeling - a mix of progress and patience, excitement and pragmatism.

Let's rewind to 2014. I was 19, fresh-faced and full of optimism, having dinner with Palmer after SVVR, one of the early VR conferences. The $2 billion Facebook-Oculus deal had just closed, and there I was, sharing a meal with someone who'd graced the cover of Wired earlier that week.

I'll never forget the absurdly large sushi boat Palmer ordered, a fitting metaphor for the outsized ambitions we all had for VR at the time. He generously paid for the entire table - dozens of VR developers, all of us dreaming big about the future.

Those were the early days, when we lugged around massive Pelican cases filled with gaming PCs, Vives, and lighthouses. We were like a traveling VR circus, but we didn't mind the inconvenience. We were pioneers, after all.

Fast forward to today. Walking the expo floor at AWE, it's clear how far we've come. Standalone mixed reality devices are commonplace. Features we once dreamed about - inside-out tracking, high-resolution displays, hand tracking - are now standard. It's genuinely impressive.

The numbers back up this progress. Developers on the Meta Quest Store have generated over $1.5 billion in revenue. That's no small feat.

But here's where it gets interesting. Despite this clear progress, the dream of mass-market, everyday consumer VR still feels elusive. It's like we're climbing a mountain, but the summit keeps shifting. We solve one challenge, only to uncover new ones.

I used to think VR would take off when it didn't require a gaming PC. Then I thought it just needed to be lighter, or smarter, or cheaper. Now, some are pinning their hopes on Apple entering the market. The goalposts keep moving.

Don't get me wrong - we've made enormous strides. The Quest 3, the Vision Pro - these are significant milestones in VR's evolution. But are they the tipping point?

The reality is, I still rely on my MacBook and iPhone for most of my work. VR is amazing for certain applications, but it hasn't had that paradigm-shifting impact the hype (I helped create) promised us.

Looking at the broader tech landscape, it's AI that seems poised to reshape our world in the immediate future, not XR. It's a humbling reminder that technological progress doesn't always follow the path we expect.

But here's the thing: I'm still a firm believer in spatial computing. What's changed is my perspective on the timeline and the path to get there.

I think we all underestimated what it would take to put an affordable, lightweight, all-day wearable computer on our faces. It's not just about better chips or clearer displays. It's about reimagining human-computer interaction at a fundamental level.

We're going to need to be a little more patient. The dream isn't dead - far from it. But maybe it's time we approach it with a more measured perspective. Let's appreciate the progress we've made, keep pushing forward, but understand that revolutions... well, they take time.

Every problem we solve brings us one step closer to that vision. The VR of 2024 might not be what we imagined in 2014, but it's significantly closer. And who knows? Maybe in 2034, we'll look back at this video and laugh at how we ever doubted the future of VR.

So, what do you think? Are you still as excited about VR as you were a decade ago? If you've been on this VR journey too, I'd love to hear your thoughts. What keeps you going? What breakthroughs are you most excited about?

The future is always under construction, and we're all building it together.

Rumor has it Apple's cooking up a cheaper Vision Pro, possibly tethered to your iPhone or Mac. They may be trying to turn your pocket computer into the brains for your face computer. Brilliant or bonkers? Let's break it down:

The Good:

• Lighter on your head and wallet.

• Sneaky way to make you upgrade your iPhone (well played, Apple).

• Positions the OG Vision Pro as the caviar of headsets.

• Eases the masses into spatial computing like a gateway drug.

The Skeptical Squint:

• Ditching the M2 chip alone won't make it featherlight.

• Your "cheaper" headset still requires a $1000+ phone.

• Say goodbye to your iPhone's battery life.

• Can your iPhone really handle Vision's appetite for power?

I’m eagerly looking forward to seeing how Apple solves these problems!

While many expected Apple to pioneer the next generation of XR styluses, Logitech has surprised the market with their MX Ink for Quest 2 & 3. This innovative device addresses the needs of digital artists and creators in the XR space, offering precision and functionality that previous attempts have lacked.

Key Features:

• Haptic feedback for enhanced tactile experience.

• Simultaneous tracking with Quest controllers.

• Three buttons for increased control and versatility.

The MX Ink represents a significant improvement over previous VR stylus attempts, potentially opening new avenues for creative work in virtual environments.

The Evolution of VR Input Devices

It's worth noting Meta's earlier attempt with the Touch Pro controllers' stylus attachment. While innovative, this solution didn't gain significant traction in the market. The introduction of dedicated devices like the MX Ink suggests a maturing ecosystem, where specialized tools are emerging to meet the diverse needs of XR users.

This development is particularly promising for digital artists and designers who have been seeking more precise and intuitive tools for XR creation. As the technology continues to evolve, we can expect to see even more sophisticated input devices tailored to specific use cases within virtual and augmented reality environments.

Just when you thought the AI world couldn't get spicier, OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever drops a bombshell: Safe Superintelligence Inc. Their modest goal? Create an AI god. No big deal.

Why It Matters:

• The next few years of AI development are crucial for the world.

• This company will be one to watch closely.

The Name Game:

AGI? That's so last year. Superintelligence is the new black. Take that, Sam Altman!

Our Take:

I’m cautiously optimistic. This sounds like a good approach, but it’s hard to shake this feeling of uneasiness, like I’ve seen how this all ends. I can’t wait to see the AI-generated show about all this drama on Max in a few years.

Who knew low-res primates could be so profitable? Gorilla Tag, the VR game where players embody blocky apes, has just crossed the $100 million revenue mark. Not bad for a game of virtual tag!

By the Numbers:

• $100 million in revenue.

• 3 million monthly active users.

• 1 million daily active users.

Why It's Bananas:

Just a few years ago, the idea of a VR game about gorillas playing tag reaching these heights would have seemed as likely as, well, actual gorillas playing tag. Yet here we are, in a world where digital ape escapades are a hot commodity.

The Secret Sauce:

David Yee, Another Axiom COO, spills the beans:

Our Take:

Gorilla Tag's success proves that in the world of VR, sometimes the simplest concepts can yield the ripest fruits. It's not just a game; it's a digital jungle gym where people come to monkey around.

As VR continues to evolve, keep your eyes peeled for more unexpected hits. After all, if swinging virtual apes can make it big, anything's possible in the metaverse playground.

Move over, ChatGPT – there's a new AI turning heads, and it's got some impressive tricks up its silicon sleeve. Anthropic has just released Claude 3.5 Sonnet, and while it may not pull me away from my ChatGPT habit entirely, it's certainly caught my attention.

Why It's Magic:

• Speed demon: It's fast. Like "blink and you'll miss it" fast.

• Benchmark buster: Outperforms GPT-4o on almost every measure. The AI equivalent of "anything you can do, I can do better."

• Artifact artistry: A new feature that displays previews of generated documents and code in a sidebar. It's like giving the AI its own digital art studio right next to the chat.

Our Take:

While I'm not ready to break up with ChatGPT just yet, Claude 3.5 Sonnet is making a compelling case for itself. The Artifacts feature is particularly intriguing – it's the kind of innovation that makes you wonder why it wasn't always a thing. Don't be surprised if you see similar features popping up in other AI chatbots soon.

As AI models continue to evolve at breakneck speed, it's exciting to see genuine competition driving innovation. Claude 3.5 Sonnet is hitting some impressive high notes, and it's a testament to how quickly the AI world is progressing.

A Personal Note:

Full disclosure: Claude has been my trusty sidekick in crafting this very newsletter. Thanks, Claude!